Seeing that Upsidedownburninghouse magazine doesn’t ask us to contribute charts to their annual collection, we figured we’d do our own list of Bullpen Consulting’s top data visualizations. There is no order to this list, so jump in wherever you want!
1.
The latest CMHC data on condo investor activity showed that there are now 133,000 leased condos in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area. However, the share of units leased at 33% didn’t change year-over-year. As we know, the share of pre-construction purchases by investors remains high, certainly above 60%. This suggests there could be an increase in assignment activity, but more likely that expanded rent control legislation in 2017 pushed investors to sell their units. (chart prepared by Bullpen for the Firm Capital Private Client Newsletter)
2.
Statistics Canada data showed a spike in population in the Toronto CMA in 2018, rising by 125,000. This likely helped prevent a deeper correction in the resale housing market last year. (chart prepared for Dash Capital)
3.
Just under 38,000 new homes were completed in the Toronto CMA in 2018, still not enough to satisfy demand. If there is 1.5 persons accommodated in the apartments, that’s 30,600 people, if 3.5 people are accommodated in the ground-related housing, that’s 60,700 people. Combined that is 91,300, about the level of population growth in 2017, but well below the growth in 2018. Keep in mind that these are NOT independent variables. It is hard for the population to grow without new homes, but it suggests that household size might start to rise as people stay living with roommates for longer as there are not enough homes to satisfy demand. (chart prepared for Bullpen’s presentation at Meridian Credit Union’s Economic Luncheon)
4.
With rent control lifted on new buildings in November of 2018, Bullpen’s requests for market studies for rental developments has taken off. The number of rental apartments under construction in the Toronto CMA continues to rise. This chart shows that since 1990, the CMA has started construction on less than 500 new rental apartments per quarter, but recently topped 1,500 in a single quarter. Rental apartments under construction topped 7,000 units earlier this year, the highest level in over 30 years. (chart prepared for Bullpen presentation to Kingsett Capital)
5.
A question that often comes up is whether the new rental apartments getting built will be affordable. Chances are they won’t be for the average tenant, but recent survey data by Informa and Avison Young showed that over 40% of tenants had higher incomes in 2019 than they did two years earlier. (prepared by Bullpen for Ben Myers’ market segment on RHBTV)
6.
There is a significant lag between per-construction sales of single-family homes in the Toronto CMA and the closings of those units. CMHC tracks the sales price of new homes at completion, and the data in 2019 was reflecting homes sold in the 2017 market bubble. Look for prices to decline quickly using this time series in 2020. (prepared for Bullpen’s guest lecture at the Schulich School of Business)
7.
The luxury rental market in the GTA is booming, this data from MLS shows there were 70 units leased for over $5,000 per month in June alone. (chart prepared by Bullpen for 11YV investor package)
8.
Toronto’s new condo price growth is staggering with the average price of popular new condos in Toronto on Buzzbuzzhome increasing by nearly $250 psf from January 2018 to September 2019. Yorkille prices have increased by $400 psf during that same time period. The latest launch in Yorkville was nearly twice as much as a fall 2016 launch in Yorkville. (chart prepared for Bullpen’s presentation for Connect Asset Management)
9.
Developers paid over $200 per-buildable-sf for high-density land in old Toronto in each of the last two quarters according to data from the GTA High-Rise Land Insights Report by Bullpen Consulting and Batory Management. The report estimated that developers paid for land at 16% of revenue in old Toronto, and 14% of revenue in the outer ‘416’ municipalities. (prepared for Bullpen’s presentation at Colliers’ LPAT event)
10.
What are Mississauga custom home builders paying for land? The chart below shows the average land price (typically a tear-down lot), the average price per-acre, the average lot size, and the average percentage of land over the custom home list price. In each postal code, the custom home developers were paying for land at about 30% of their eventual list price. (prepared by Bullpen for Mississauga infill land valuation report)
11.
What are new purpose-built rental apartment projects asking for rent? The chart below looks at the average rent per-square-foot for new developments listed on Rentals.ca. The two Yonge & Eglinton sites are offering units at $4 to $4.20 psf on average. (chart prepared for Bullpen’s presentation for Woodburne’s Annual General Meeting)
12.
With GTA condo prices rising rapidly, investors are looking to new markets. DTK Condos in Kitchener experienced tremendous sales success, and is now offering units at nearly $700 psf. (prepared by Bullpen for Kitchener revenue assessment report)
13.
Who are the top resale agents in the GTA and how much are they selling? Take a look at the list below. (prepared by Bullpen for Ai Surety Bonding market deck)
14.
Toronto has the most dissatisfied tenants in Canada according to a recent Survey by Statistics Canada (prepared for Ben Myers’ market segment on RHBTV)
15.
Former residents of the GTA that left for less expensive housing markets are having a tremendous impact on new home prices in other markets. The average single-family house price in the Brantford CMA has gone nuclear over the past couple years. (prepared for Paris residential market study)
16.
Statistics Canada rolled out a new condo price index, which showed that as of Q1-2019, Vancouver new condo prices were up 9% annualy and Toronto prices were up by 7.4%, while Calgary prices declined by almost 16%. (prepared by Bullpen for the Firm Capital Private Client Report)
17.
Bullpen showed that the highest percent increase in rent is occurring at the bottom of the market, with the 10th percentile of rent for all property types on Rentals.ca was up by 8% annually. It’s not actually the luxury rental projects pulling rent up, its the least desirable properties pushing rents up. We believe that the stress test pushed everyone down a rung on the property ladder, hurting people at the bottom the most. (prepared by Bullpen for the Rentals.ca National Rent Report).
18.
Do condo buyers want tremendous views from tall towers, or the intimacy of a boutique project? Resale data on these small scale developments in west Toronto show that boutique projects are pushing $1,000 psf. (prepared for Toronto west retail and residential market assessment and recommendation report)
19.
The Durham Region new home market is still adjusting to the overheated conditions two years ago. The chart below shows the average price of popular new ground-related houses by month and property type. Prices are trending downward, as some developers lower their prices and others launch at the new market price via Buzzbuzzhome data. The market is very price sensitive, and units $20,000 too high will not sell. (prepared by Bullpen for Ajax townhouse market study)
20.
The number of leased condos in the Toronto CMA increased by 5,692 units in 2018, a 5% growth rate. Based on CMHC data, Bullpen has estimated that 60% to 70% of completed condos over the last four years have been purchased by hold-and-rent investors. (prepared for Core Development investor update report)
21.
Data from Buzzbuzzhome shows that the online interest in studio units has exploded in 2019. As prices spike, investors are seeking out the cheapest units in the market. Despite this huge interest, developers have not been programming a significant number of studios. Could this be due to potential NIMBY blowback at public meetings? (prepared by Bullpen’s presentation at the BILD Summit)
22.
Half of the high-density land sales in Q3-2019 was for properties with an active development application. Land vendors continue to try to better establish value of their lands prior to selling them. Despite uniformed planners calling for lands with approvals on them to be built, a significant portion of lands with full approvals are not owned by developers. (prepared by Bullpen and Batory Management for the GTA High-Rise Land Insights Report)
23.
What is the residual value of parking at condo leases? Purpose-built rental developers are not charging enough for parking, as MLS rental data shows parking is likely worth $250 to $300 per month in downtown east. (prepared for Toronto PBR parking study)
24.
Okay, this chart is from 2018, but the numbers are crazy! #NYC (prepared by Bullpen for Toronto ultra-luxury condo project data report)
25.
Population growth reached the highest level of all time nationally according to mid-year data from Statistics Canada at 530,000. Ontario increased by 250,000 year-over-year. (prepared by Bullpen for multiple presentations)
THE END!
If you’re still craving more, here are a couple articles worth reading:
RENx: Population Growth has Huge Housing Impact
NewinHomes: New Condo Prices in Toronto Could Surpass $1,600 psf in Five Years
Next Home: Should Investors be Worried about the Rental Housing Boom?
Building Magazine: Canada’s New Home Data Problem