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Toronto Under Construction Podcast: Episode 78 – Housing Market Insights from Industry Leaders
In Episode 78 of the Toronto Under Construction podcast, host Ben Myers is joined by Uzo Roussouw, Director of Land at Ballantry Homes; Edward Jegg, Research Manager at Altus; and Frank Clayton, Senior Research Fellow at Toronto Metropolitan University (TMU). Together, they explore historical and current housing trends, government policies, development charges, and the evolving dynamics of Toronto’s housing market.
Demographics and Housing Demand
Ben kicks off the episode by going back in time to a 1989 report titled The Housing Industry in the Future by Clayton Research Associates & Scanada Consultants. The report highlighted key trends such as aging populations, delayed marriages, fewer children, a rise in two-income households, and a reduction in the size of families which will likely be made up by increased immigration. Ben asks Frank whether demographics still drive housing demand or whether affordability challenges have altered traditional living arrangements. At 7:13, Frank responds by saying, “Housing demand is governed by demographics and income,” emphasizing that economic factors remain crucial.
Ben turns to Uzo, noting that while she chose to raise her family in Toronto, her firm builds homes in suburban areas like Brampton, Markham, and Welland. He asks her to contrast her personal decision with the choices of many buyers moving out of Toronto. At 10:10, Uzo reflects on the trade-offs families face when choosing between urban convenience and suburban affordability.
Ben highlights another conclusion from the 1989 report: “Governments are becoming more supportive of the private development industry.” He asks Ed whether government policies have made things better or worse since then. At 12:31, Ed offers his perspective, while Uzo provides insights from a planning standpoint. Frank shares historical examples of how 1980s policies effectively boosted housing supply.
Ground-Related Housing and Policy Challenges
Next, Ben references a TVO Today article from May 2018 titled Why Toronto Needs More Townhouses, which cites Frank Clayton’s research:
“The city’s housing crunch is a crisis that Ryerson University economist Frank Clayton says will only get worse now that the millennial cohort has begun having kids. Clayton’s research has shown that when people start having children, they tend to want a home with a front door and a patch of grass where they can barbecue — it’s what urban planners call ‘ground-related housing.’ Townhomes eat up half as much space as a typical single-family home (and sometimes less than that), so they are typically the most affordable type. Clayton says supply isn’t dwindling simply because there’s no space or because developers wouldn’t jump at the chance to build more, but also because provincial policies are biased against ground-related housing and the city fails to see the potential in redeveloping underused industrial land. While changing those policies and attitudes wouldn’t solve the affordability crisis for everyone, it could make a difference for families.”
Ben asks Frank if his opinion has changed after six years? Are we putting too much emphasis on higher-density housing and forcing less affluent families to leave the GTA? At 18:22, Frank argues that policymakers continue to favor high-density developments despite evidence supporting a balanced approach. Ben then asks Ed what the data says about buyer preferences? Is new ground-related house pricing rising faster than urban condo prices, or vice versa? At 20:18, Ed compares post-COVID pricing trends, describing it as “a tale of two years.” Ben asks Uzo to share her insights on low rise homes by asking “what are people looking for? Are they looking for the massive stuff?” Tune in at 25:11 for Uzo’s response where she jokes, “the past year no one has been looking for anything, so the question is, what are people going to be looking for when they come out of it.” The group also touched on senior housing saying that seniors aren’t downsizing as expected.
Municipal Funding and Development Charges
Ben references a CBC News article from March 2019 titled Toronto Has Room to Hike Property Taxes by 20% to Fund City Services, which states:
“Toronto has room to hike average property taxes on homes by around 20%, according to a new report from Ryerson University. The research provides a stark contrast to the city’s latest budget — which ties property taxes to the rate of inflation, a move critics say hinders the city’s ability to deliver crucial services, from snow clearing to public housing repairs. Across the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, more than 20 municipalities recorded higher average property taxes than Toronto, wrote the report’s author, Frank Clayton. Why not increase taxes one or two percentage points above the inflation rate, and have money to finance needed infrastructure and other services caused by population growth, and the aging of our infrastructure that has to be replaced?”
Ben asks Uzo: “The development industry has been fighting hard against the massive increases in development charges and has made headway in Vaughan. DCs are earmarked to pay for many things that should be covered by property taxes. Do you think there is the political will to shift responsibility to taxpayers instead of new buyers?” At 33:16, Uzo questions why new developments are expected to fund existing infrastructure when municipalities should be making those investments. The group critiques the idea that “growth pays for growth,” arguing that growth benefits the entire community.
Population Growth and Housing Supply
Next, Ben cites a Storeys.com article from June 2019 titled Toronto’s Rapid Population Growth Could Cause Housing Crisis: Expert, which highlights:
“The report was conducted by Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development. It found that Toronto is the fastest-growing city in Canada and the U.S. by a huge margin. Between July 2017 and July 2018, Ontario’s capital gained 77,000 net new residents. That’s more than three times as many people as the second fastest-growing municipality, Phoenix, Ariz., and it’s more than the “combined gains of the three fastest growing central cities in the United States” — Phoenix, San Antonio, Tex., and Fort Worth, Tex. The Toronto CMA also ranked high on the study’s list of fastest-growing metro areas in Canada and the U.S. The city came in at number two with 125,000 new additions, just behind Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, who added 131,000. Net international migration (both permanent and temporary residents) was the dominant source of population growth in metropolitan Toronto, followed by births.”
Ben asks Frank whether Toronto’s population boom stems from high-paying jobs, top-tier universities, or immigration policy. At 41:51, Frank shares his analysis, and the group discusses how Toronto’s global appeal shapes housing demand.
Greenfield Development and Urban Sprawl
Ben references a University of Toronto, School of Cities blog from July 2022 titled Greenfield Development Does Not Equal Sprawl. So What? We Can Do Better, which argues:
“In a recent blog, TMU researchers Frank Clayton and David Amborski argue for ‘orderly and comprehensively planned low-density development,’ based on the contention that not all greenfield development is sprawl. But sprawl is only the development we don’t want. What about the development we do want? We want growth that’s healthy, environmentally responsible, and inclusive. That means places where we can walk, bike, and cross-country ski, and places that protect water quality and habitat on a regional scale. Their neighbourhoods would offer a mix of housing types, tenures, and price levels and provide transportation options that don’t require a car for many trips. That’s the diverse community the GTA wants to be. But the comprehensively planned low-density development that Clayton and Amborski envision will not deliver places that support that diversity. Instead, it is replicating the communities that we have now. To support the growth most Torontonians want for our future, we need to stop planning around who we were fifty years ago.”
Ben says to Frank: “You’ve been a supporter of urban development and high-density living. You live in a condo in the middle of the city, but this blog appears to try to position you as a supporter of exurban low-density housing, commuters, and bedroom communities. Care to share a rebuttal?” At 52:34, where Frank explains why we need both and disputes differing ideas of sprawl. Turning to Ed, Ben says the author of this blog is using the royal “we” here, but is this really what all people want? I don’t believe that everyone wants to live in areas with a mix of housing, tenures and price levels. Some people clearly want to live on giant single-family lots in a gated community, am I wrong? Tune in at 55:39 for Ed’s thoughts on greenfield and sprawl. Uzo shares her thoughts on the obsession with infill and shares the reality of this type of housing; “to Frank’s point you need to have both, and to Ed’s point you need to have choice,” she says.
Rapid-Fire Questions and Final Thoughts
Wrapping up the episode, Ben asks his guests Rapid Fire Questions including, If you only had the choice between buying a pre-construction condo in downtown Toronto or any cryptocurrency of your choice, what would it be? Is MCAP underestimating the value of residential properties in the GTA? Do you think that municipalities use development charges as a means to limit development? Trudeau has announced a GST freeze on certain items, vote grab or reasonable policy response to high inflation on less affluent families? Ideally, what should be the annual split between market rate completions, and government or non-profit completions? Do you think the vacant homes tax and foreign buyer’s tax has any positive impact on housing affordability? And more!
Tune in now to episode 78 of the Toronto Under Construction podcast for expert insights on housing market challenges and opportunities in the Greater Toronto Area.
Tune in now to episode 78 of the Toronto Under Construction podcast!
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